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Rainfall-runoff modelling – a comparison of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS)

ABSTRACT This article presents comparison of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) model for rainfall-runoff (R-R) process. Aim of the present work is to forecast runoff one day ahead at Shivade station of Upper Krishna Basin, India, using 17 years of daily rainfall and discharge data. The R-R modelling can be exercised using various traditional methods which generally require exogenous data in the form of basin parameters. Unavailability of such data becomes major impediment in applying these models at many basins. In such situations, soft computing techniques like ANNs have been extensively applied to model R-R process. Though ANN is now an established tool in hydrology, compared to HEC-HMS, its results are viewed with suspicion owing to its data-driven nature rather than a model-driven nature. In this study, ANN model performed reasonably well, with a higher correlation coefficient (0.87) and the lowest Root Mean Square Error (136.28 m3/s) when compared with HEC-HMS (0.76, 139.8 m3/s) respectively. Novelty of the present work lies in model development using restricted basin data. Both models showed less accuracy in predicting extreme events. Finally, it is concluded that ANN model can be used as a supplementary technique along with HEC-HMS for this phenomenon.

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New insights into culvert scour depth calculation by soft computing models using multi-model ensemble approach and uncertainty analysis

ABSTRACT The accurate prediction of scour depth in culverts is crucial to ensure public safety and due to the uncertainties in classical empirical/deterministic equations, it remains challenging. This study presents new ensemble multi-models to predict scour depth and quantify model bias and uncertainty. In this study, culvert scour was predicted by gene expression programming (GEP) and least square support vector machine (LSSVM), firstly based on dimensionless parameters. In the multi-model ensemble strategy, four ensemble approaches, namely SM, WM, LSSVM, and BMA were applied. The LSSVM showed overall best skill for the multi-model approach, that reduced the error by 61.3% and increased the coefficient of determination by 52.1%. The results showed the proposed approach can satisfy the requirements of simplicity, applicability, and accuracy at the same time. For application purposes, we provided a simple code to obtain scour depth with great accuracy using LSSVM. BMA and LSSVM were used to quantify the scour culvert uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that the LSSVM predicts scour depth quite well and generates high-quality prediction intervals. The results revealed that a multi-model ensemble strategy improved accuracy, certainty and reliability for culvert scour compared to empirical equations.

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Selection of best wavelet functions and decomposition levels for coupling with soft computing methods in estimating ETo in coastal and island regions

ABSTRACT Mass transfer-based models are among the extensively applied reference evapotranspiration (ET o ) estimation approaches that have been proven to provide reliable estimates under certain climatic and geographical conditions. A major issue with such approaches is the high variations in wind speed time series, which is a governing meteorological parameter in mass transfer-based models. few studies have focused on applying wavelet transform as a robust pre-processing technique for ETo estimation. A major question with coupling wavelet transforms with soft computing methods would be the proper choice of the wavelet function, vanishing moments and the decomposition levels. The present study aims at assessing different wavelet functions coupled with boosted regression tree (BT) models, i.e. wavelet-BT (WBT), in estimating ET o values (through mass transfer parameters) in both coastal and island regions, where it is supposed that wind speed variations are affected by sea–inland interactions and so has the sharp variations (unlike ET o ). The obtained results showed that the coupled WBT model could improve the single BT model results to a great extent, and meanwhile, the Daubechies wavelet function with six vanishing moments provided the most accurate results in all the locations. Further, the best simulation outcomes with each wavelet function were obtained when the maximum possible decomposition level was used with each function.

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